A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
