Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
