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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest race is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and recent also-rans rising in unison. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a normal year!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still